In the last few years, Maharashtra has faced severe drought. Within Maharashtra, the Marathwada region lies in the rain shadow zone, receiving an average annual rainfall of around 750 mm. Beed, Latur, and Osmanabad districts in Marathwada receive rainfall that is lower than the average for Marathwada.

At the beginning of the kharif season this year, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast rainfall for the monsoon at 104 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), whereas Skymet (a private agency) predicted rainfall at 109 per cent of the LPA. These predictions have proved wrong. The monsoon arrived late and rainfall has been uneven across the State, and especially low in Marathwada. Over the last couple of decades, the monsoon has hit Maharashtra between the third and last week of June. The monsoon arrived in the third week of June this year.

In Osmanabad district, for example, the long term average rainfall is 765 mm. By the end of August this year, total rainfall was only 394 mm. Interestingly, one can observe variations in rainfall over the last three months. Rainfall was below normal in June and August, and above normal in July. September is the only month that remains before the monsoon retreats, and yet there is no sign of rainfall. This indicates that a severe drought may occur this year as well in Osmanabad district.

As the Meteorological Department had predicted normal rainfall, most of the sowing was completed by mid-July. In Osmanabad and Latur districts, soya bean is now a major kharif crop and the area under soya cultivation has consistently increased over the last five years. The average net cropped area under soya bean in Osmanabad district was around 107,000 hectares; however, the area this year has almost doubled to 208,000 hectares, in the expectation of a normal monsoon. In other words, around 40 per cent of the net cropped area of the kharif season is under soya bean alone, and the shortfall in rainfall is going to severely affect the output and yield of soya bean.

An increase in the area under soya bean reflects the massive shift of area from sugarcane to soya bean and pulses in the district. Water scarcity, growing costs of cultivation, unfair output prices for sugarcane, and relatively fair prices for pulses and oilseeds were the major factors responsible for such a shift.

As soya bean cultivation is less water-intensive than sugarcane, it is preferred over sugarcane in a drought-prone region. Another reason for the shift to soya bean has been the expansion in crop insurance. In 2015-16, a large section of landowners was entitled to crop insurance for soya bean. As per this scheme, eligible farmers received a sum insured of Rs. 17,500, against a premium of Rs. 350 per hectare (2 per cent of sum insured). The insurance amount, although much less than the expected income of the cultivators had their crop not failed, was still the highest for any crop in the district. The total insurance amount actually disbursed for soya bean was also the highest for any crop in the district.

For sugarcane, the premium is higher (around 5 per cent of sum insured). Moreover, getting insurance sanctioned for sugarcane is difficult, as evident from the experience of last year. In fact, no insurance was sanctioned for sugarcane in 2015-16, as reported to me in personal interviews with Bharat Raut and Mahadev Suryavanshi, both soya bean cultivators.

The insurance amount for last year’s soya bean was disbursed only in June 2016, at the time of sowing of the kharif crop for 2016, and was immediately invested back in many cases. This year, many farmers have already suffered losses in the current kharif season on account of uneven rainfall but the insurance premium is yet to be declared, as the crop insurance scheme has been replaced by the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY).

The question arises as to how farmers will pay the insurance premium for the current year. Many could not pay the premium for the rabi season last year and hence did not receive any insurance payments for their losses.

A further problem with crop insurance is the method followed by the government to assess eligibility. The existing method of crop assessment is an old one, but still followed in many States. In Maharashtra, the paisewari or annewari methods are used to assess damage to crops, and insurance is sanctioned on the basis of the paisewari score. The paisewari score is the ratio of the observed yield to the standard yield in a given rainfall circle (in percentage). If the score is less than 50 paisa, the crop is eligible for insurance.

Long gaps in rainfall will not just affect overall productivity and production, but also add to the costs of cultivation. Because of a warm climate and the absence of rain, there have been attacks by armyworm insects on soya bean, urad, and moong crops, which require multiple rounds of pesticide application. This adds to the cost of cultivation and becomes an economic burden. At the time of flowering, an attack by armyworm insects can halt the process of growth of the crop. Anna Tarange, a young farmer said, “This has been the fourth round of pesticide application in one month; but pests have not yet been controlled.”

There has also been a shortage of groundwater in the last few years. This year’s monsoon has not contributed to groundwater replenishment, and dams in the district are still dry. Some farmers have started using modern irrigation methods such as sprinklers and drip irrigation to boost the production of standing crops; however, such efforts are confined to rich farmers. Poor farmers are left with no options and may lose their crop.

The uneven pattern of rainfall has resulted in uncertainty and vulnerability. Kharif crops are at risk, with a high possibility of lower productivity and quality of production. Finally, there is a danger that the uneven rainfall in the monsoon season will have a negative impact on rabi crops this year.